Tournament forecast
Dixon-Coles + Monte-Carlo · 20,000 simulated tournaments · group-advance & title odds
| # | Team | Grp | Win grp | Advance | Semis | Win cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇲🇦 Morocco | C | 41% | 82% | 18% | 7% |
| 2 | 🇯🇵 Japan | F | 35% | 78% | 14% | 4% |
| 3 | 🇪🇸 Spain | H | 42% | 82% | 13% | 4% |
| 4 | 🇧🇪 Belgium | G | 36% | 77% | 14% | 4% |
| 5 | 🇵🇹 Portugal | K | 36% | 78% | 13% | 4% |
| 6 | 🇩🇿 Algeria | J | 29% | 72% | 12% | 3% |
| 7 | 🇦🇷 Argentina | J | 33% | 76% | 13% | 3% |
| 8 | England | L | 37% | 79% | 11% | 3% |
| 9 | 🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire | E | 29% | 71% | 11% | 3% |
| 10 | 🇩🇪 Germany | E | 32% | 74% | 11% | 3% |
| 11 | 🇸🇳 Senegal | I | 27% | 71% | 10% | 3% |
| 12 | 🇮🇷 Iran | G | 26% | 69% | 11% | 3% |
| 13 | 🇫🇷 France | I | 30% | 73% | 10% | 3% |
| 14 | 🇳🇱 Netherlands | F | 30% | 73% | 10% | 3% |
| 15 | 🇳🇴 Norway | I | 29% | 72% | 10% | 3% |
| 16 | 🇲🇽 Mexico | A | 40% | 81% | 11% | 3% |
| 17 | 🇨🇦 Canada | B | 46% | 87% | 11% | 2% |
| 18 | 🇧🇷 Brazil | C | 25% | 69% | 9% | 2% |
| 19 | 🇰🇷 South Korea | A | 21% | 64% | 8% | 2% |
| 20 | 🇨🇭 Switzerland | B | 30% | 77% | 9% | 2% |
| 21 | 🇦🇹 Austria | J | 21% | 63% | 8% | 2% |
| 22 | 🇦🇺 Australia | D | 21% | 65% | 8% | 2% |
| 23 | 🇨🇴 Colombia | K | 25% | 68% | 8% | 2% |
| 24 | 🇺🇸 USA | D | 38% | 79% | 9% | 2% |
| 25 | 🇨🇿 Czechia | A | 25% | 67% | 8% | 2% |
| 26 | 🇹🇷 Türkiye | D | 27% | 71% | 8% | 2% |
| 27 | 🇭🇷 Croatia | L | 24% | 67% | 7% | 2% |
| 28 | 🇪🇨 Ecuador | E | 21% | 64% | 7% | 2% |
| 29 | 🇭🇹 Haiti | C | 18% | 59% | 7% | 2% |
| 30 | 🇹🇳 Tunisia | F | 22% | 65% | 7% | 1% |
| 31 | 🇨🇩 DR Congo | K | 20% | 61% | 7% | 1% |
| 32 | 🇺🇾 Uruguay | H | 25% | 69% | 7% | 1% |
| 33 | 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan | K | 19% | 60% | 7% | 1% |
| 34 | 🇪🇬 Egypt | G | 19% | 59% | 7% | 1% |
| 35 | 🇳🇿 New Zealand | G | 19% | 61% | 6% | 1% |
| 36 | 🇨🇼 Curaçao | E | 18% | 57% | 5% | 1% |
| 37 | 🇨🇻 Cabo Verde | H | 19% | 62% | 6% | 1% |
| 38 | 🇿🇦 South Africa | A | 14% | 54% | 5% | 1% |
| 39 | 🇵🇦 Panama | L | 23% | 64% | 5% | 1% |
| 40 | 🇯🇴 Jordan | J | 17% | 56% | 5% | 1% |
| 41 | 🇮🇶 Iraq | I | 14% | 52% | 5% | 1% |
| 42 | Scotland | C | 16% | 56% | 5% | 1% |
| 43 | 🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina | B | 13% | 55% | 4% | 1% |
| 44 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | F | 14% | 51% | 4% | 1% |
| 45 | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | H | 14% | 54% | 4% | 1% |
| 46 | 🇵🇾 Paraguay | D | 14% | 52% | 5% | 1% |
| 47 | 🇬🇭 Ghana | L | 16% | 57% | 5% | 1% |
| 48 | 🇶🇦 Qatar | B | 10% | 46% | 3% | 1% |
Each tournament is played out 20,000 times: 72 group matches are sampled from the Dixon-Coles goal model, ranked with FIFA tie-breakers, the eight best third-placed teams qualify, and the full 32-team bracket is reconstructed from the official fixture slots (
1A, 2C, 3B/3E/…, W83) and played to the final. Win cup bars are scaled to the leader. Group-stage odds are exact for the format; the knockout wiring follows the documented modelling assumptions in docs/13-simulation-model.md.