Predictions

Dixon-Coles Elo + Poisson

Dixon-Coles model · 72 group-stage fixtures · dixon-coles-v1

Group AThu 11 JunxG 1.70 – 0.92

🇿🇦South Africa

Home 56%Draw 24%Away 20%

Group AFri 12 JunxG 1.38 – 1.07

South Korea🇰🇷

🇨🇿Czechia

Home 44%Draw 27%Away 29%

Group BFri 12 JunxG 2.11 – 1.03

🇧🇦Bosnia & Herzegovina

Home 62%Draw 20%Away 18%

Group DSat 13 JunxG 1.85 – 1.02

🇵🇾Paraguay

Home 57%Draw 23%Away 21%

Group BSat 13 JunxG 1.11 – 1.29

🇨🇭Switzerland

Home 32%Draw 28%Away 40%

Group CSun 14 JunxG 1.06 – 1.27

🇲🇦Morocco

Home 31%Draw 28%Away 41%

Group CSun 14 JunxG 1.40 – 1.05

Home 45%Draw 27%Away 28%

Group DSun 14 JunxG 1.27 – 1.01

Australia🇦🇺

🇹🇷Türkiye

Home 42%Draw 28%Away 29%

Group ESun 14 JunxG 1.53 – 1.06

Germany🇩🇪

🇨🇼Curaçao

Home 48%Draw 26%Away 26%

Group FSun 14 JunxG 1.27 – 1.28

Netherlands🇳🇱

Home 36%Draw 27%Away 37%

Group EMon 15 JunxG 1.20 – 0.81

Côte d'Ivoire🇨🇮

🇪🇨Ecuador

Home 45%Draw 30%Away 25%

Group FMon 15 JunxG 1.17 – 1.12

🇹🇳Tunisia

Home 37%Draw 29%Away 35%

Group HMon 15 JunxG 1.63 – 1.06

🇨🇻Cabo Verde

Home 51%Draw 25%Away 24%

Group GMon 15 JunxG 1.42 – 0.95

Belgium🇧🇪

Home 48%Draw 27%Away 25%

Group HTue 16 JunxG 0.95 – 0.95

Saudi Arabia🇸🇦

🇺🇾Uruguay

Home 34%Draw 32%Away 34%

Group GTue 16 JunxG 1.51 – 1.03

🇳🇿New Zealand

Home 48%Draw 26%Away 26%

Group ITue 16 JunxG 1.35 – 1.20

🇸🇳Senegal

Home 40%Draw 27%Away 33%

Group IWed 17 JunxG 1.12 – 1.20

Home 34%Draw 28%Away 38%

Group JWed 17 JunxG 1.30 – 1.12

Argentina🇦🇷

🇩🇿Algeria

Home 41%Draw 28%Away 32%

Group JWed 17 JunxG 1.38 – 0.96

Austria🇦🇹

Home 46%Draw 28%Away 26%

Group KWed 17 JunxG 1.40 – 0.97

Portugal🇵🇹

🇨🇩DR Congo

Home 47%Draw 27%Away 26%

Group LWed 17 JunxG 1.41 – 1.03

🇭🇷Croatia

Home 46%Draw 27%Away 27%

Group LThu 18 JunxG 1.24 – 1.11

Home 39%Draw 28%Away 33%

Group KThu 18 JunxG 1.21 – 1.10

Uzbekistan🇺🇿

🇨🇴Colombia

Home 39%Draw 28%Away 33%

Group AThu 18 JunxG 1.31 – 1.06

Czechia🇨🇿

🇿🇦South Africa

Home 42%Draw 28%Away 30%

Group BThu 18 JunxG 1.48 – 1.02

Switzerland🇨🇭

🇧🇦Bosnia & Herzegovina

Home 48%Draw 26%Away 26%

Group BFri 19 JunxG 2.15 – 0.95

Home 65%Draw 20%Away 16%

Group AFri 19 JunxG 1.63 – 1.02

🇰🇷South Korea

Home 52%Draw 25%Away 23%

Group DFri 19 JunxG 1.74 – 1.19

🇦🇺Australia

Home 50%Draw 24%Away 26%

Group CSat 20 JunxG 0.94 – 1.38

🇲🇦Morocco

Home 26%Draw 28%Away 47%

Group CSat 20 JunxG 1.40 – 1.10

Home 44%Draw 27%Away 29%

Group DSat 20 JunxG 1.27 – 0.93

Türkiye🇹🇷

🇵🇾Paraguay

Home 44%Draw 29%Away 27%

Group FSat 20 JunxG 1.63 – 1.06

Netherlands🇳🇱

Home 51%Draw 25%Away 25%

Group ESat 20 JunxG 1.28 – 1.16

Germany🇩🇪

🇨🇮Côte d'Ivoire

Home 39%Draw 28%Away 33%

Group ESun 21 JunxG 1.13 – 0.94

Ecuador🇪🇨

🇨🇼Curaçao

Home 40%Draw 30%Away 30%

Group FSun 21 JunxG 1.03 – 1.20

Tunisia🇹🇳

Home 31%Draw 29%Away 40%

Group HSun 21 JunxG 1.56 – 0.88

🇸🇦Saudi Arabia

Home 53%Draw 26%Away 21%

Group GSun 21 JunxG 1.46 – 1.15

Belgium🇧🇪

Home 44%Draw 26%Away 30%

Group HMon 22 JunxG 1.17 – 0.97

Uruguay🇺🇾

🇨🇻Cabo Verde

Home 40%Draw 30%Away 30%

Group GMon 22 JunxG 1.18 – 1.06

New Zealand🇳🇿

Home 38%Draw 29%Away 32%

Group JMon 22 JunxG 1.32 – 0.97

Argentina🇦🇷

🇦🇹Austria

Home 44%Draw 28%Away 27%

Group IMon 22 JunxG 1.46 – 0.96

Home 48%Draw 27%Away 25%

Group ITue 23 JunxG 1.31 – 1.19

🇸🇳Senegal

Home 39%Draw 27%Away 33%

Group JTue 23 JunxG 1.12 – 1.34

🇩🇿Algeria

Home 31%Draw 27%Away 42%

Group KTue 23 JunxG 1.57 – 1.05

Portugal🇵🇹

🇺🇿Uzbekistan

Home 49%Draw 25%Away 25%

Group LTue 23 JunxG 1.38 – 0.84

Home 49%Draw 28%Away 23%

Group LWed 24 JunxG 1.34 – 1.28

🇭🇷Croatia

Home 38%Draw 26%Away 35%

Group KWed 24 JunxG 1.15 – 0.95

Colombia🇨🇴

🇨🇩DR Congo

Home 40%Draw 30%Away 30%

Group BWed 24 JunxG 1.37 – 1.09

Switzerland🇨🇭

Home 43%Draw 27%Away 30%

Group BWed 24 JunxG 1.35 – 1.03

Bosnia & Herzegovina🇧🇦

Home 44%Draw 28%Away 29%

Group CThu 25 JunxG 1.17 – 1.21

Home 35%Draw 28%Away 37%

Group CThu 25 JunxG 1.60 – 0.89

Morocco🇲🇦

Home 54%Draw 25%Away 21%

Group AThu 25 JunxG 1.10 – 1.08

South Africa🇿🇦

🇰🇷South Korea

Home 36%Draw 30%Away 35%

Group AThu 25 JunxG 1.23 – 1.04

Czechia🇨🇿

Home 40%Draw 29%Away 31%

Group EThu 25 JunxG 1.05 – 1.07

Ecuador🇪🇨

🇩🇪Germany

Home 35%Draw 30%Away 35%

Group EThu 25 JunxG 1.13 – 1.24

Curaçao🇨🇼

🇨🇮Côte d'Ivoire

Home 33%Draw 28%Away 39%

Group FFri 26 JunxG 1.20 – 1.17

Tunisia🇹🇳

🇳🇱Netherlands

Home 37%Draw 28%Away 35%

Group FFri 26 JunxG 1.67 – 0.91

Home 55%Draw 25%Away 20%

Group DFri 26 JunxG 1.48 – 1.11

Türkiye🇹🇷

Home 46%Draw 26%Away 28%

Group DFri 26 JunxG 0.97 – 1.02

Paraguay🇵🇾

🇦🇺Australia

Home 33%Draw 31%Away 36%

Group IFri 26 JunxG 1.41 – 1.21

Home 41%Draw 26%Away 32%

Group IFri 26 JunxG 1.42 – 0.90

Senegal🇸🇳

Home 49%Draw 27%Away 24%

Group HSat 27 JunxG 1.15 – 1.24

Uruguay🇺🇾

Home 34%Draw 28%Away 38%

Group HSat 27 JunxG 1.21 – 0.90

Cabo Verde🇨🇻

🇸🇦Saudi Arabia

Home 43%Draw 30%Away 27%

Group GSat 27 JunxG 1.19 – 1.18

Home 36%Draw 28%Away 36%

Group GSat 27 JunxG 1.15 – 1.30

New Zealand🇳🇿

🇧🇪Belgium

Home 33%Draw 27%Away 40%

Group LSat 27 JunxG 1.14 – 1.28

Home 33%Draw 28%Away 39%

Group LSat 27 JunxG 1.39 – 0.99

Croatia🇭🇷

Home 46%Draw 27%Away 27%

Group KSun 28 JunxG 1.24 – 1.25

Colombia🇨🇴

🇵🇹Portugal

Home 36%Draw 27%Away 36%

Group KSun 28 JunxG 1.19 – 0.98

DR Congo🇨🇩

🇺🇿Uzbekistan

Home 41%Draw 29%Away 30%

Group JSun 28 JunxG 1.42 – 1.03

Algeria🇩🇿

🇦🇹Austria

Home 46%Draw 27%Away 27%

Group JSun 28 JunxG 1.05 – 1.25

🇦🇷Argentina

Home 31%Draw 28%Away 41%

Dixon-Coles (low-score correction + exponential time-decay weighting, fitted by weighted MLE) is now live alongside the Elo + Poisson baseline — switch above. Both feed a Monte-Carlo tournament simulation for group-advance & title odds. Still on the roadmap: opponent-strength/confederation weighting, xG-based goal rates, and a market-odds blend. See docs/08-prediction-roadmap.md.