Predictions

Dixon-Coles Elo + Poisson

Elo + Poisson model · 72 group-stage fixtures · baseline-poisson-elo-v1

Group AThu 11 JunxG 1.04 – 0.91

🇿🇦South Africa

Home 38%Draw 31%Away 31%

Group AFri 12 JunxG 1.72 – 1.27

South Korea🇰🇷

🇨🇿Czechia

Home 48%Draw 24%Away 28%

Group BFri 12 JunxG 2.49 – 1.24

🇧🇦Bosnia & Herzegovina

Home 65%Draw 18%Away 17%

Group DSat 13 JunxG 1.36 – 1.05

🇵🇾Paraguay

Home 44%Draw 27%Away 29%

Group BSat 13 JunxG 1.11 – 2.16

🇨🇭Switzerland

Home 19%Draw 20%Away 61%

Group CSun 14 JunxG 0.70 – 1.77

🇲🇦Morocco

Home 14%Draw 23%Away 63%

Group CSun 14 JunxG 2.49 – 1.22

Home 65%Draw 18%Away 17%

Group DSun 14 JunxG 1.66 – 0.72

Australia🇦🇺

🇹🇷Türkiye

Home 60%Draw 24%Away 16%

Group ESun 14 JunxG 2.29 – 1.20

Germany🇩🇪

🇨🇼Curaçao

Home 62%Draw 19%Away 19%

Group FSun 14 JunxG 1.06 – 1.73

Netherlands🇳🇱

Home 23%Draw 24%Away 53%

Group EMon 15 JunxG 0.95 – 0.46

Côte d'Ivoire🇨🇮

🇪🇨Ecuador

Home 46%Draw 36%Away 17%

Group FMon 15 JunxG 1.75 – 1.73

🇹🇳Tunisia

Home 39%Draw 22%Away 38%

Group HMon 15 JunxG 2.26 – 1.32

🇨🇻Cabo Verde

Home 59%Draw 20%Away 22%

Group GMon 15 JunxG 1.47 – 0.82

Belgium🇧🇪

Home 53%Draw 27%Away 21%

Group HTue 16 JunxG 0.84 – 1.18

Saudi Arabia🇸🇦

🇺🇾Uruguay

Home 26%Draw 30%Away 44%

Group GTue 16 JunxG 2.02 – 1.60

🇳🇿New Zealand

Home 48%Draw 21%Away 31%

Group ITue 16 JunxG 1.51 – 1.63

🇸🇳Senegal

Home 36%Draw 24%Away 41%

Group IWed 17 JunxG 0.83 – 1.45

Home 22%Draw 27%Away 52%

Group JWed 17 JunxG 1.64 – 0.72

Argentina🇦🇷

🇩🇿Algeria

Home 60%Draw 24%Away 16%

Group JWed 17 JunxG 1.96 – 0.67

Austria🇦🇹

Home 68%Draw 20%Away 12%

Group KWed 17 JunxG 1.27 – 1.22

Portugal🇵🇹

🇨🇩DR Congo

Home 38%Draw 27%Away 35%

Group LWed 17 JunxG 2.01 – 0.96

🇭🇷Croatia

Home 62%Draw 21%Away 17%

Group LThu 18 JunxG 1.63 – 1.46

Home 42%Draw 24%Away 34%

Group KThu 18 JunxG 1.31 – 1.37

Uzbekistan🇺🇿

🇨🇴Colombia

Home 36%Draw 26%Away 38%

Group AThu 18 JunxG 1.36 – 1.15

Czechia🇨🇿

🇿🇦South Africa

Home 42%Draw 27%Away 32%

Group BThu 18 JunxG 2.43 – 1.16

Switzerland🇨🇭

🇧🇦Bosnia & Herzegovina

Home 65%Draw 18%Away 17%

Group BFri 19 JunxG 2.45 – 1.07

Home 68%Draw 18%Away 15%

Group AFri 19 JunxG 1.08 – 1.23

🇰🇷South Korea

Home 32%Draw 28%Away 40%

Group DFri 19 JunxG 0.88 – 1.89

🇦🇺Australia

Home 17%Draw 22%Away 61%

Group CSat 20 JunxG 0.60 – 2.37

🇲🇦Morocco

Home 8%Draw 15%Away 77%

Group CSat 20 JunxG 1.58 – 1.68

Home 36%Draw 23%Away 41%

Group DSat 20 JunxG 1.24 – 0.83

Türkiye🇹🇷

🇵🇾Paraguay

Home 46%Draw 29%Away 25%

Group FSat 20 JunxG 3.07 – 1.32

Netherlands🇳🇱

Home 72%Draw 14%Away 13%

Group ESat 20 JunxG 1.09 – 1.20

Germany🇩🇪

🇨🇮Côte d'Ivoire

Home 33%Draw 28%Away 39%

Group ESun 21 JunxG 1.06 – 0.86

Ecuador🇪🇨

🇨🇼Curaçao

Home 40%Draw 31%Away 29%

Group FSun 21 JunxG 0.66 – 2.08

Tunisia🇹🇳

Home 11%Draw 19%Away 71%

Group HSun 21 JunxG 2.56 – 0.98

🇸🇦Saudi Arabia

Home 71%Draw 16%Away 12%

Group GSun 21 JunxG 1.87 – 1.33

Belgium🇧🇪

Home 50%Draw 23%Away 27%

Group HMon 22 JunxG 1.15 – 1.02

Uruguay🇺🇾

🇨🇻Cabo Verde

Home 39%Draw 29%Away 32%

Group GMon 22 JunxG 1.38 – 1.13

New Zealand🇳🇿

Home 43%Draw 27%Away 31%

Group JMon 22 JunxG 1.26 – 0.66

Argentina🇦🇷

🇦🇹Austria

Home 51%Draw 30%Away 19%

Group IMon 22 JunxG 1.26 – 0.99

Home 42%Draw 28%Away 29%

Group ITue 23 JunxG 1.92 – 1.24

🇸🇳Senegal

Home 53%Draw 22%Away 25%

Group JTue 23 JunxG 0.97 – 1.94

🇩🇿Algeria

Home 18%Draw 22%Away 60%

Group KTue 23 JunxG 1.94 – 1.50

Portugal🇵🇹

🇺🇿Uzbekistan

Home 48%Draw 22%Away 30%

Group LTue 23 JunxG 1.96 – 0.63

Home 69%Draw 20%Away 11%

Group LWed 24 JunxG 1.65 – 2.25

🇭🇷Croatia

Home 28%Draw 20%Away 51%

Group KWed 24 JunxG 0.99 – 0.97

Colombia🇨🇴

🇨🇩DR Congo

Home 35%Draw 31%Away 34%

Group BWed 24 JunxG 1.84 – 1.47

Bosnia & Herzegovina🇧🇦

Home 47%Draw 23%Away 31%

Group BWed 24 JunxG 1.77 – 1.39

Switzerland🇨🇭

Home 47%Draw 23%Away 30%

Group CThu 25 JunxG 1.27 – 1.82

Home 27%Draw 23%Away 50%

Group CThu 25 JunxG 2.06 – 0.79

Morocco🇲🇦

Home 67%Draw 20%Away 13%

Group AThu 25 JunxG 0.93 – 1.10

South Africa🇿🇦

🇰🇷South Korea

Home 30%Draw 30%Away 39%

Group AThu 25 JunxG 1.52 – 1.20

Czechia🇨🇿

Home 45%Draw 25%Away 30%

Group EThu 25 JunxG 0.71 – 0.99

Ecuador🇪🇨

🇩🇪Germany

Home 25%Draw 34%Away 41%

Group EThu 25 JunxG 0.95 – 1.80

Curaçao🇨🇼

🇨🇮Côte d'Ivoire

Home 20%Draw 23%Away 57%

Group FFri 26 JunxG 2.78 – 0.66

Home 81%Draw 12%Away 6%

Group FFri 26 JunxG 1.31 – 2.30

Tunisia🇹🇳

🇳🇱Netherlands

Home 21%Draw 20%Away 60%

Group DFri 26 JunxG 0.46 – 1.16

Paraguay🇵🇾

🇦🇺Australia

Home 15%Draw 32%Away 54%

Group DFri 26 JunxG 2.01 – 1.43

Türkiye🇹🇷

Home 51%Draw 22%Away 27%

Group IFri 26 JunxG 2.44 – 1.32

Home 62%Draw 19%Away 19%

Group IFri 26 JunxG 1.18 – 0.78

Senegal🇸🇳

Home 45%Draw 30%Away 24%

Group HSat 27 JunxG 1.61 – 0.96

Cabo Verde🇨🇻

🇸🇦Saudi Arabia

Home 53%Draw 25%Away 22%

Group HSat 27 JunxG 1.18 – 1.63

Uruguay🇺🇾

Home 28%Draw 25%Away 48%

Group GSat 27 JunxG 1.24 – 1.44

Home 33%Draw 26%Away 42%

Group GSat 27 JunxG 1.28 – 1.69

New Zealand🇳🇿

🇧🇪Belgium

Home 29%Draw 24%Away 47%

Group LSat 27 JunxG 2.02 – 1.23

Croatia🇭🇷

Home 56%Draw 21%Away 23%

Group LSat 27 JunxG 0.84 – 2.18

Home 13%Draw 19%Away 68%

Group KSun 28 JunxG 1.80 – 1.65

Colombia🇨🇴

🇵🇹Portugal

Home 42%Draw 22%Away 36%

Group KSun 28 JunxG 1.14 – 0.83

DR Congo🇨🇩

🇺🇿Uzbekistan

Home 43%Draw 31%Away 27%

Group JSun 28 JunxG 1.30 – 1.41

Algeria🇩🇿

🇦🇹Austria

Home 35%Draw 26%Away 40%

Group JSun 28 JunxG 0.45 – 1.87

🇦🇷Argentina

Home 8%Draw 20%Away 72%

Dixon-Coles (low-score correction + exponential time-decay weighting, fitted by weighted MLE) is now live alongside the Elo + Poisson baseline — switch above. Both feed a Monte-Carlo tournament simulation for group-advance & title odds. Still on the roadmap: opponent-strength/confederation weighting, xG-based goal rates, and a market-odds blend. See docs/08-prediction-roadmap.md.